Análisis comparativo de técnicas de pronóstico para variables de producción y precios de café colombiano

Ximena Cifuentes Wchima; Luis Miguel  MEJIA GIRALDO

doi:10.22490/21456453.10108

Vol. 17 Núm. 2 (2026)

Publicado 26-09-2026

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Análisis comparativo de técnicas de pronóstico para variables de producción y precios de café colombiano

DOI: https://doi.org/10.22490/21456453.10108

Ximena Cifuentes Wchima Universidad La Gran Colombia

Luis Miguel MEJIA GIRALDO Universidad La Gran Colombia

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El presente trabajo de investigación gira en torno a la modelación estocástica de regresión simple y múltiple de variables asociadas al negocio de café, encontrándose modelos no lineales simples altamente significativos (valor p = 0,0000) de variables como consumo doméstico en miles de sacos, las existencias iniciales brutas, el precio pagado a productores y el precio del café en bolsa de Nueva York. A su vez, se aprecia que se consolidan modelos de regresión múltiples altamente significativos entre las variables precio pagado a productores, precio de café en bolsa de Nueva York y la diferencia entre ambos precios (valor p = 0,0000), quienes a su vez denotan su alta bondad de ajuste y potencial para la proyección predictiva de dichas variables desde el contexto estocástico sin olvidar la importancia del razonamiento propio de las dinámicas de mercado propio del análisis fundamental del mismo.

Palabras clave: café, modelamiento, regresión, no linealidad

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Cifuentes Wchima, X., & MEJIA GIRALDO, L. M. . (2026). Análisis comparativo de técnicas de pronóstico para variables de producción y precios de café colombiano. Revista De Investigación Agraria Y Ambiental, 17(2), 139-158. https://doi.org/10.22490/21456453.10108

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