Potenciales áreas cultivables de pasifloras en una región tropical considerando escenarios de cambio climático

Andrés Munar; Adalberto  Rodríguez; Jorge Muñoz

doi:10.22490/21456453.4637

Vol. 13 No. 1 (2022)

Published 2021-12-21

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Área Agrícola

Potential suitable areas for passifloras crops in a tropical region considering climate change scenarios

DOI: https://doi.org/10.22490/21456453.4637

Andrés Munar Corporación centro de desarrollo tecnológico de las pasifloras de Colombia – CEPASS

Adalberto Rodríguez Corporación Centro de Desarrollo Tecnológico de las Pasifloras de Colombia – CEPASS

Jorge Muñoz Corporación Centro de Des arrollo Tecnológico de las Pasifloras de Colombia – CEPASS

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Abstract
References

Contextualization: Climate change and anthropic activities on natural resources are the main causes of the biodiversity loss and the species redistribution.

Knowledge gap: However, the effects at the community and ecosystem levels, as well as the impacts on agricultural crops on a regional scale, are little studied. Species distribution models have become valuable tools for the prediction of areas potentially suitable for cultivable species, their management and planning.

Purpose: This research pretends predict the potential of cultivable areas for passion fruit (Passiflora edulis var. flavicarpa Degener), grenadia (Passiflora ligularis Juss), and sweet calabash (Passiflora maliformis L.), in a tropical region, using the MaxEnt model and considering climate change scenarios.

Methodology: Occurrence records of the analyzed species, obtained from their geographic coordinates, were used as input data for the MaxEnt model. In total, 141 occurrence records of passion fruit, 256 records of grenadia and 40 records of sweet calabash were used for the MaxEnt model, as well as 12 bioclimatic variables for the current and future projections in the 2050 and 2070 periods, considering two Representative Concentration Pathways RCPs from the CMIP5 (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)

Results and conclusions: The results revealed that the potential suitable areas for the analysed species could be predicted from the MaxEnt model, using field records and bioclimatic variables. Likewise, the simulations indicated that the areas of potential occurrence for the analysed species could decrease in the future, considering climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the periods 2050 and 2070. For the passion fruit, grenadia and sweet calabash crops, the greatest reductions in the potential suitable areas correspond to 23 %, 25 % and 31 % respectively, and would occur in the 2070 period in a pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5). This is the first study that predicts the potential suitable areas for passiflora’s crops, using the MaxEnt model and contemplating climate change scenarios on a regional scale in a tropical region. The proposed approach can provide important tools for the management and sustainable use of the species studied.

keywords: Passiflora edulis var. flavicarpa Degener, Passiflora ligularis Juss, Passiflora maliformis L., Maxent

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How to Cite

Munar , A., Rodríguez, A. ., & Muñoz, J. (2021). Potential suitable areas for passifloras crops in a tropical region considering climate change scenarios. Revista De Investigación Agraria Y Ambiental, 13(1), 109-129. https://doi.org/10.22490/21456453.4637

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