Flow forecast of the cravo sur river, sector of El Morro - la cabuya bridge, Casanare department, Colombia

Colombia has a large hydrographic network in the region of Eastern Plains, where the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) has hydrometeorological stations than can store rainfall records over time. They are required for develop studies that allows monitoring this network, thus providing a base for decision-making in sectors that are affected by the climatic variations. In accordance with this situation, it is intended to forecast the flow surrounding to the municipality of Yopal and obtain useful elements to anticipate and minimize risks, especially to the Colombian agricultural sector, which is characteristic of this region. A case study of flow in the middle basin of Cravo Sur River was proposed, using a time series of monthly periodicity from 1975 to 2014. After that, an exploratory data analysis was carried out, which allowed the visualization of the descriptive statistics useful to evaluate the general behavior of the mentioned series. Subsequently, the series were analyzed to determine the most appropriate forecasting model.

As a result, it was determined that, as time goes by, flows tend to increase slightly, but without generating risks greater than those currently suffered for this region, especially in times of constant rainfall rates. This estimation is adjusted to the own characteristics of the station studied and depends exclusively on its history.