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Territorial vulnerability and sustainable recovery in the face of extreme seismic events: a systemic framework for western Colombia
Disasters associated with natural hazards are not explained by the physical characteristics of the triggering phenomenon, but by the interaction between the hazard and the social, environmental, economic, institutional, and territorial conditions that shape vulnerability. This study analyzes territorial vulnerability and the possibilities for sustainable recovery in western Colombia following the earthquake of August 10, 2026, through a qualitative case study with triangulation of scientific, institutional, and territorial sources. The results show that the territorial differences observed respond to the interaction among pre-existing vulnerability, exposure, institutional capacities, connectivity, and socioeconomic conditions, rather than to the physical effects of the hazard alone; recovery, moreover, can either reduce vulnerabilities or reproduce them, depending on reconstruction decisions and existing capacities. Based on these findings, a systemic sustainable recovery framework is proposed that articulates territorial vulnerability, resilience, SDGs, and Planetary Boundaries, aimed at strengthening capacities, reducing vulnerabilities, and preventing the reproduction of risk. Pre-existing environmental conditions are considered relevant to territorial analysis and the sustainability of recovery, without establishing causal relationships with the occurrence of the seismic event.
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