Saddle-node bifurcation in the dynamic analysis of a national energy market

Johan Manuel Redondo; Gerard Olivar Tost; Danny Ibarra-Vega; Carlos Peña-Rincon

doi:10.22490/25904779.3066

Workshop and International Seminar on Complexity Sciencies

Publicado

2018-11-02

PDF

Métricas

Cargando métricas ...

Saddle-node bifurcation in the dynamic analysis of a national energy market

DOI: https://doi.org/10.22490/25904779.3066

Sección

Artículos

Johan Manuel Redondo PhD. Professor. Catholic University of Colombia. Bogota D.C - Colombia

Gerard Olivar Tost PhD. Professor. National University of Colombia. Manizales – Colombia

Danny Ibarra-Vega PhD. Professor. National University of Colombia. Manizales – Colombia

Carlos Peña-Rincon PhD. Professor. Sergio Arboleda University - Bogotá D.C - Colombia

This article presents preliminary results of the mathematical analysis of a national energy market. The modeling of the studied system was made from causal relationships between the supply and demand of a national energy market, obtaining a system of ordinary differential equations of the first order of the electric power capacity in construction, the electric power capacity installed and the price of electricity in the market (Redondo et.al, 2018). In the dynamic analysis of the model, a saddle-node bifurcation was identified for the case in which the elasticity of the price with respect to the reserve margin is considered null, which allowed establishing two prospective scenarios of the system: absolute disappearance of the supply of electricity or tendency of growth of the supply to the attention of the demand of the market

National energy markets, equilibria point, saddle-node bifurcation, Dynamical Systems.

Redondo, J.M., Olivar, G., Ibarra-Vega, D. and Dyner, I. (2018). Modeling for the regional integration of electricity markets. Journal Energy for Sustainable Development, volume 43, pages 110-113, Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2017.12.003.

Ochoa, M.C. (2010). Análisis de la integración eléctrica Panamá CAN bajo el esquema de subasta implícita. Tesis de grado para optar al título de magíster en ingeniería de sistemas, director: Carlos Jaime Franco C., PhD, Facultad de Minas Universidad Nacional de Colombia, sede Medellín. http://www.bdigital.unal.edu.co/2531/1/43221793.2010.pdf

Angelus, A. (2001). Electricity price forecasting in deregulated markets, The Electricity Journal.

Deng, S. (2000a), Princing electricity derivatives under alternative stochastic spot price models, in Preceedings of the 33rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

Deng, S. (2000b), Stochastic models of energy commodity prices and their applications: Mean reversion with jumps and spikes, Technical report, Program onWorkable Energy Regulation (POWER) working paper 073.

Ethier, R. y Mount, T. (1998), Estimating the volatility of spot prices in restructured electricitymarkets and the implications for options values, Technical report, Cornell University.

Ethier, R. (1999), Valuing electricity assets in deregulated markets: A real options model with mean reverting and jumps, Technical report, Cornell University.

Knittel, C. y Roberts, M. (2001), An empirical examination of derregulated electricity prices, Technical report, Program on Workable Energy Regulation (POWER) University of California, Energy Institute.

Silva, B., Teixeria, J. y Gomes, L. (2001), Previsao de precos spot e avaliacao de projetos de geracao termeletrica, in IX Semiario de Planejamento Economico Financeiro do Setor Eletrico (SEPEF).

Velásquez, J. D. y Dyner, I. (2001), Pronóstico de precios de bolsa de electricidad usando un modelo de redes neuronales artificiales, in EITI-2001, Universidad Nacional de Colombia.

Pulgarín, A., Smith, R. y Poveda, G. (2001), Predicción del precio de la energía eléctrica con un modelo de redes neuronales y usando variables macroclimáticas, in XIV Seminario Nacional de Hidráulica e Hidrología, Colombia.

Conejo, A., Contreras, J., Espinosa, R. y Plazas,M. (2005). Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electricity energy market, International Journal of Forecasting 21.

Ramsay, B. y Wang, A. (1998). A neural network based estimator for electricity spotpricing with particular reference to weekend and public holidays, Neurocomputing (23).

Szkuta, B., Sanabria, L. y Dillon, T. (1998). Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 14(3).

Souza, R. (2002). Modelling the brazilian spot price series, in IFORS 2002.

Medeiros, L. (2003). Previsao do Preco Spot no Mercado de Energia Eletrica, PhD thesis, Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro.

Hong, Y. y Hsiao, C. (2001), Locational marginal price forecasting in deregulated electricity markets using a recurrent neural network, in IEEE Power Engineergin Society Winter Meeting.

Redondo, J. M., Olivar Tost, G., Ibarra-Vega, D., & Peña-Rincon, C. (2018). Saddle-node bifurcation in the dynamic analysis of a national energy market. Memorias, 1, 51-57. https://doi.org/10.22490/25904779.3066

Descargar cita